MVN: Most Valuable Network

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Rays Sign OF Pat Burrell

On Monday, the defending American League champion Tampa Bay Rays signed former Philadelphia Phillies OF Pat Burrell to a two-year, $16 million deal.

Burrell should serve as the Rays' primary DH and provide a powerful right-handed bat in the middle of their lineup.  Last year for the Phillies, he had 33 HR and 86 RBI along with a .507 slugging percentage.  2008 was the fourth straight season Burrell had slugging percentage over .500.

Burrell joins a potentially very good Tampa Bay lineup that includes 1B Carlos Pena, LF Carl Crawford, CF B.J. Upton and 2008 AL Rookie of the Year 3B Evan Longoria.  He looks likely to bat fifth in the order, behind Crawford, Upton, Longoria and Pena.  2B Akinori Iwamura is in the mix as well to possibly bat first or second, which would change things slightly above Burrell. But no matter what, Burrell should be in a position to be productive.  Crawford and Upton both had injury problems last season which sapped some of their productivity, but they are just 27 and 24 respectively and should rebound this season.

From a fantasy perspective, Burrell will not help you much in batting average.  He has just a .257 career average and has only topped .260 twice in his career.  He also strikes out a lot, having at least 120 Ks in every season of his major league career, but has also topped 100 walks in each of the past two seasons. 

Where Burrell will help the most is in the power numbers.  He has hit at least 30 HRs in three of the last four seasons, and he hit 29 in the other.  Also, 2008 was the first season since 2004 that Burrell did not drive in at least 95,

Moving away from the hitter-friendly confines of Citizen's Bank Park may bring Burrell's HR numbers down, but that could lead to more doubles.  He also may get off to a slow start, since he will be adjusting to a new league and a new role as a primary DH.  That said, projecting Burrell for 25-30 HRs and 90 or more RBIs seems reasonable.  At still just 32 years old, he could provide a decent value on draft day.  Just make sure you get good batting average from elsewhere on your roster.

Fantasy Baseball: Evaluating Pitchers

Fantasy baseball newbies often wonder why pitchers are not drafted more highly. In a typical serpentine draft it is not unusual to see the first pitcher taken as deep as the late first or early second round. From there a slow trickle will ensue until all the first and second tier pitchers do not leave the draft board until the early middle rounds. By contrast, there will not be a first tier batter available after the early second round. Why the discrepancy?

The problem with pitchers from a fantasy perspective is that they are more injury-prone than batters and their performance is more unpredictable. Despite the fact that the top pitchers will often finish the season as the highest-scoring components of many fantasy teams, we continue to draft them lower than batters. Apart from their fragility and unpredictability, the biggest reason for this is the ease with which pitchers may be acquired within the course of the season.

Thirty major league teams with five-man starting rotations will use at least 150 starting pitchers throughout the course of a season. Additionally, if each team has one closer and one setup man, that makes for approximately 60 relief pitchers with some fantasy value. There is no other position in the game that has those kind of raw numbers. That means that there will be a lot of pitchers on the free agent waiver wire during the course of a fantasy campaign.

In all fairness, most of the arms available for pickup during the season will have little to no fantasy value. However, amongst all those duds will be a few studs that smart fantasy players can identify and acquire. This article is intended as a primer in how to do so.

Last week I went over the various statistics that we can use to evaluate pitchers. Now let us take that knowledge and apply it in the form of a lesson in what to look for from pitchers who are available on your league's waiver wire.

All of a pitcher's stats have something to say about their respective value, but only a few contain the critical clues within the puzzle. To keep things simple for now, my favorites are WHIP, strikeout rate (K%), strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) and BABIP. WHIP tells us how good the pitcher is at keeping runners off base. K% tells us how good he is at preventing contact. K/BB is an indicator of the pitcher's relative level of control. BABIP tells us if he has been lucky or unlucky and whether or not he could be due for a correction.

When evaluating a pitcher's WHIP, I am actually more interested in seeing how many walks he has given up. Even the best pitcher is going to give up a hit every now and then, but walks are much more within the control of the guy on the mound. Nothing will send an ERA higher than a pitcher who gives too many free passes -- they will catch up to him sooner or later. If you see an available starting pitcher who has a sub-1.25 WHIP over three or four starts or a reliever with a sub-1.10 WHIP over six to ten appearances, that should be reason enough to flag him as a possible pickup.

Strikeout rate comes next in the process. Even though strikeouts are fascist (thank you Crash Davis) and they make pitchers throw a lot of pitches, batters who strike out have no chance to do anything damaging to a pitcher's numbers. For that reason, a pitcher who can maintain a decent K% has potential fantasy value across the board. A starting pitcher with a K% in the range of 6.0 to 8.0 over three to four starts or a relief pitcher with a K% in the range of 7.0 to 10.0 over at least six to ten appearances is a candidate for acquisition.

Regarding strikeout-to-walk ratio, a high number signifies a pitcher with outstanding control of his arsenal. To get a 2.0 K/BB, a hurler must have at least twice as many strikeouts as walks. That means fewer baserunners and less chances for damage. Any pitcher who can maintain a K/BB over 2.0 across three starts or six appearances has to be considered as an addition to your team.

BABIP is kind of a luck indicator that can tell us whether or not a pitcher's numbers are fraudulent. Since BABIP only measures hits on balls that are actually contacted and do not leave as home runs, it can help us understand if a pitcher is simply suffering from too many bloop hits falling in or if he is enjoying a run of balls headed right at his fielders.

The league average BABIP is usually around .300, so a pitcher with a BABIP that is either much higher or much lower could be due for a correction. A high BABIP means that a lot of hits are falling in and the pitcher's numbers are likely suffering; he could be due for some better outings. A low BABIP means that fewer hits are falling in and the pitcher's numbers could be artificially low.

I do not believe that any of these statistics should be examined by themselves when you are evaluating talent. Prudent fantasy owners will take into account all available information and make judgments based on it. But all of these unconventional stats examined as a whole should help to tell the story of a pitcher's abilities.

To weave all of this together, let us look at a real example of a fine pickup for many fantasy owners in 2008. Ricky Nolasco went undrafted in virtually every fantasy league last season, but he finished the year with a 15-8 record, a 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 186 strikeouts in 212 1/3 innings pitched. He started the year roughly, but from May 9 to May 31 Nolasco had five straight starts in which he compiled a 1.23 WHIP, a 7.06 K%, a 2.1 K/BB and a .269 BABIP.

Depending on how much roster space you had available on May 31, picking up Nolasco might have been a good idea on that date. Despite the .269 BABIP serving as a danger sign that maybe he had just been getting lucky (he finished the year with a .273 BABIP), the rest of his numbers screamed that he was a good in-season pickup. In fact, you would have done well to get him in late May, because he went on an absolute tear from June 10 to July 12 in which he went 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in only 50 2/3 innings. By the end of that streak he was probably unavailable in all but the shallowest leagues.

Evaluating pitchers is an inexact science at best. But since half of a fantasy league's points are determined by pitchers, it is absolutely essential that we learn to do so effectively. As with the Nolasco example, sometimes you have to ignore little warning signs and go with the rest of a pitcher's numbers. If you had done so at the beginning of June you would have gotten one of the best pitchers in the National League last season for practically nothing.

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Trade Rumor-Orioles' 2B Brian Roberts

In what has become a regular occurrence, Baltimore Orioles' 2B Brian Roberts is on the trading block once again.

Rumors have suggested that both Chicago teams are in the mix, but a report suggested that the White Sox and Orioles are discussing a trade.  White Sox P Gavin Floyd would go east to Baltimore in the deal.

Roberts has been a consistent performer over the past few years, In 2008, he hit .295 with 9 HR, 57 RBI and 40 SB.  He also had 51 doubles last season, which was good for second in the American League in that category.  Since 2005, he has hit at least .286, had at least a .410 slugging percentage and stolen at least 27 bases every season.  Roberts has also been durable, playing in 159, 143, 138, 156 and 155 games since 2004.  However, the White Sox lineup does face some uncertainty with the exits of OF/1B Nick Swisher, 3B Joe Crede, IF Juan Uribe and OF Ken Griffey, Jr.  1B/DH Paul Konerko also struggled in first half of 2008, and his age could be showing.  But no matter where he plays in 2009, the 31-year old Roberts is a top-five fantasy option at 2B on draft day.

On the other side, Gavin Floyd had a breakthrough 2008 season, going 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 206 innings pitched.  All the above numbers were career highs for the young pitcher, who will turn 26 in late January.  A potential move to Baltimore looks like a lateral move in terms of how hitter/pitcher friendly the stadium is, but his win total would likely come down some pitching for the Orioles.  Floyd could be good for double digit wins no matter where he pitches, with an ERA around 4.00.  To expect anything better would be expecting too much, though youth (and thus potential upside) is on Floyd's side. 

Reports have also suggested that the Orioles want another player along with Floyd in exchange for Roberts.  The White Sox have also already traded SP Javier Vazquez this offseason, so they may not be willing to trade another starting pitcher.  But they do have a void at 2B, and GM Ken Williams may be willing to part with another pitcher to add a veteran to a lineup that looks to be very young for the coming season.

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Indians acquire Mark DeRosa

The Cleveland Indians acquired former Chicago Cubs' IF/OF Mark DeRosa in exchange for three minor leaguers earlier this week.

DeRosa is coming off a career year in 2008, as he hit 21 HR with 87 RBI along with 103 runs scored and a .481 slugging percentage; which are all career highs.  He is expected to play 3B for the Indians, but has spent time at 2B, OF and SS during his major league career.  Cleveland may put that versatility to use if the situation dictates.

The main negative with DeRosa is his age, as he'll turn 34 in February.  That makes a repeat of last season's numbers very unlikely.  It also makes a decline, particularly in power numbers, a virtual certainty.

If C Victor Martinez and DH Travis Hafner can rebound from injury plagued seasons in 2008, the Indians' offense could be very productive.  CF Grady Sizemore is coming off a 30 HR-30 SB season, and should continue to provide the team with a formidable leadoff man.  SS Jhonny Peralta also had a nice 2008 season, hitting 23 HR with 89 RBI.    DeRosa would seem likely to step into the No. 2 spot in the batting order, which could provide the opportunity to score plenty of runs if nothing else.

DeRosa' multi-position eligibility increases his fantasy value on draft day, but don't go crazy trying to get him based on his 2008 production.  He is unlikely to top 20 HRs again, which would likely drop his RBI production as well.  90+ runs scored is not out of the question, as long as the lineup around him stays healthy.  A solid batting average in the .280 range is also a good possibility for DeRosa in 2009. 

 

Fantasy Baseball 2009-Impact of Angels signing Brian Fuentes

Earlier in the week, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim signed former Colorado Rockies' closer Brian Fuentes to a two-year, $17.5 million dollar contract with a club option for a third year.  The Angels now have their replacement for Francisco Rodriguez, who signed with the New York Mets earlier this offseason.  The Rockies simply didn't have room in what is looking to be a crowded back end of their bullpen to retain Fuentes.

Fuentes had 30 saves in 34 chances in 2008 after regaining the closer's role in Colorado, which he had lost in 2007.  He is a three-time All-Star (2005-2007), and has 115 career saves. 

Fuentes finished 2008 strong, going 16-for-16 in save opportunities and a 1.75 ERA after the All-Star break.  Also, he had a 1.84 ERA on the road in 2008, so a move out of Colorado should be a move that will benefit him.  He is also originally from Merced, California so he may have wanted to play closer to home as well.

Fuentes becomes part of a strong Angels' bullpen, with setup men Scot Shields, Jose Arrendondo and others.  That means he should get plenty of save chances as long as the Angel offense doesn't suffer a too much of a drop-off without 1B Mark Teixeira.

Fuentes could be a nice potentially low cost-high upside fantasy closer in 2009, now that he's pitching for a better team and will probably see more save opportunities then he has in the past.  He's got a chance to top 40 saves, and probably won't cost you as much on draft day as the other closers that may put up similar numbers. 

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Oakland A's Outfielder Matt Holliday

The Oakland A's acquired OF Matt Holliday from the Colorado Rockies in November.  Holliday is a free agent after the 2009 season, so the Rockies couldn't afford to risk losing him and getting nothing in return for the three-time All-Star.

Holliday's move west would seem to have a negative impact on his fantasy value, as he will not be playing his home games in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field.

A closer examination of Holliday's numbers may disprove that notion.  For example, here are his important fantasy numbers for the past three seasons, split Home vs. Road:

2008
Home: In 73 games: .332 BA, .584 SLG, .413 OBP, 15 HR, 59 RBI
Road:  In 66 games: .308 BA, .486 SLG, .405 OBP, 10 HR, 29 RBI

2007
Home: In 82 games: .376 BA, .722 SLG, .435 OBP, 25 HR, 82 RBI
Road:  In 76 games: .301 BA, .485 SLG, .374 OBP, 11 HR, 55 RBI

2006
Home: In 78 games, .373 BA, .692 SLG, .440 OBP, 22 HR, 78 RBI
Road:  In 77 games, .280 BA, .485 SLG, .333 OBP, 12 HR, 36 RBI

Holliday never played in Oakland while with the Rockies, so there is no data to pull anything from there.

Here's an overview of Holliday's last three seasons:

His home/road splits have gotten less dramatic across the board as he has aged, perhaps reflecting a better approach at the plate and also perhaps physical maturation.

Holliday's overall drop-off in 2008 from his terrific 2007 may have been partially due to a hamstring injury suffered in May.  He played in 139 games after topping 150 games played the previous two seasons.  Injuries to some key players around him, most notably 1B Todd Helton and SS Troy Tulowitski, may have also hampered Holliday's production

Despite the leg injury, Holliday had a career-high 28 stolen bases in 2008.  That number reeks of a fluke, since he had never before topped 15 stolen bases in a season.

His batting average at home and on the road has been very good, over .300 five out of six times.

If Oakland can put at least one other solid hitter around Holliday in the lineup, he could have a good season.  Don't underestimate the potential for a big payday next winter as motivation for him to do his best to have a big season as well.

Fantasy Baseball: Using Stats Effectively - Pitchers

It is pretty obvious that the entire premise of fantasy sports is predicated on the use of statistics by fans to build teams of their own creation. But fantasy players who limit their base of knowledge to only those statistical categories for which they earn points are doing themselves a grave disservice. This article is intended as a basic primer in the three levels of baseball statistics that can be helpful to fantasy players looking for an edge.

In the coming weeks and months I will be providing a great deal of analysis regarding the fantasy value of many players. Often I will refer back to the statistics in this piece as evidence to bolster my arguments and I felt that it would be a good idea to provide a clear explanation of what all of these stats mean and how I see them. Some in the baseball world are likely to disagree with my interpretation of these categories and I welcome their respectful comments.

I call the first level of baseball statistics the STANDARD STATS and it is populated by your box score and baseball card numbers. These are the most well-known stats and they are the easiest to keep up with -- they also form the basis for fantasy scoring in a majority of leagues. At most, they might involve a minor calculation or two, but many of them are simply counting statistics. Some examples for pitchers include:

• WINS (W) are loathed by many mathematically-minded baseball analysts because they often remain out of the pitcher's control, but they remain a popular way to measure a starting pitcher's relative level of success. From a fantasy standpoint, wins are notoriously difficult to predict and even good pitchers can get cheated out of wins by bad luck or poor run support.
  

• SAVES (Sv) are also disliked by many in the sabermetric community because they feel that it is not necessarily an accurate measure of a relief pitcher's true worth. Still, saves are the most commonly used barometer for pitchers out of the bullpen and it is typically a fantasy scoring category.
  

• ERA stands for Earned Run Average and it is a number that attempts to illustrate how good or bad a pitcher is at preventing runs from scoring (the lower the better). It is calculated by taking a pitcher's earned runs allowed, multiplying it by nine, and dividing that number by his innings pitched (i.e., (ER * 9) / IP). In general, pitchers with low ERAs are better than those with higher ones.
  

• STRIKEOUTS (K) are one of the sexiest stats in all of baseball, perhaps eclipsed only by the home run. A pitcher who strikes out a lot of batters is not allowing those batters to make contact with the ball, thus preventing nasty outcomes like base hits. That is why many high strikeout pitchers, with some exceptions, are usually among the best in the game.
  

• WHIP is a ratio statistic that has only come into common usage in the last 20 years or so. It stands for walks and hits per innings pitched (i.e., (BB + H) / IP) and lower numbers are better. Of all the standard statistics, this one is probably the most effective at indicating the true quality of a pitcher's arsenal. This is due to the fact that pitchers who do not allow many base runners are not likely to allow many runs to score. That means that wins, saves and a low ERA should follow.

The second level of statistic is my favorite and it is related to the first. I call them PERIPHERAL STATS. They vary in origin, but many of them are derived from stats in the first level. Others of them are stats that have not been traditionally kept for whatever reason. Either way, there are a lot of them and they can be useful for different reasons.

Many people would place some of these stats in the category of sabermetric statistics. The argument can certainly be made, but I place them here because I reserve the sabermetric category for numbers derived from hopelessly complex formulas. I joke, but I classify these stats here because their derivation is gleaned only from events on the field of play. For pitchers, they include, but are not limited to:

• STRIKEOUT RATE (K%) is also called strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and it is calculated by taking a pitcher's strikeout total, multiplying it by nine, and dividing by innings pitched (i.e., (K * 9) / IP). Higher numbers are better, but a strikeout rate below 5.6 is considered poor, while anything above 8.0 is outstanding.
  

• WALK RATE (BB%) is also called walks per nine innings (BB/9) and it is calculated by taking a pitcher's walk total, multiplying it by nine, and dividing by innings pitched (i.e., (BB * 9) / IP). Lower numbers are better, but a walk rate over 3.0 is considered poor, while anything below 2.0 is elite.
  

• STRIKEOUT-TO-WALK RATIO (K/BB) is a number that provides a comparison between how often a pitcher strikes out batters versus how often he allows them a free pass. Many analysts would make the case that there is no more crucial statistic to use when judging pitchers than K/BB. High numbers are better, but a K/BB under 1.0 is awful, over 2.0 is good and over 3.0 is elite.
  

• HOME RUN RATE (HR%) is also called home runs per nine innings (HR/9) and it is calculated much like K% and BB% (i.e., (HR * 9) / IP). A good measure of a pitcher's propensity for giving up home runs, HR% is better when it is a low number. Below 0.75 is excellent, but over 1.20 is terrible.
  

• BATTING AVERAGE AGAINST (BAA) is the batting average of a pitcher's opponents when they have faced him. The opposite of batting average for hitters, this number is better when it is lower. Elite pitchers will allow around .245 or lower, bad pitchers will allow .280 or higher.
  

• BATTING AVERAGE ON BALLS IN PLAY (BABIP) measures the percentage of base hits a pitcher has allowed only on balls that have been put into play and have not left the yard. It is also seen as an indicator of how lucky or unlucky a pitcher is. This may sound weird, but a BABIP for a pitcher is considered good at around .300. There will be a more detailed discussion of this stat in January, but pitcher's with high BABIPs are considered too unlucky, while those with low BABIPs are considered too lucky.
  

• STRAND RATE (LOB%), or left-on-base percentage, describes the proportion of base runners that a pitcher allows to score. The average strand rate is around 75%, but a higher or lower number is sometimes indicative of a lucky or unlucky pitcher. This is another stat that I will discuss in a future post, but elite pitchers will often have a strand rate around 80%.
  

• LINE DRIVE/GROUNDBALL/FLYBALL PERCENTAGE tells us the relative percentage of each kind of batted ball given up by a pitcher (on outs and base hits). These numbers will vary depending on the style of the pitcher in question, but groundball rates over 50 percent, flyball rates under 28 percent and line drive rates under 19 percent are considered very strong.
  

• HOME RUN TO FLYBALL RATIO (HR/FB) is a measure of the percentage of home runs allowed by a pitcher relative to the number of flyballs he has relinquished. A HR/FB of 8 percent or below is excellent, while a HR/FB over 12 percent is considered poor, but this number has to be considered along with the pitcher's flyball rate for accurate analysis.
  

• PITCH EFFICIENCY (P/9) takes the total number of pitches thrown, multiplies that by nine, and divides by innings pitched (i.e., (P * 9) / IP). In other words, if a particular pitcher pitched a complete game in every appearance, P/9 will tell us how many pitches it would take that guy to get through the game. Lower numbers indicate pitchers who are more efficient and less likely to wear down over the course of a season.
  

The third and final level of useful baseball statistics are the SABERMETRIC STATS. Frequently these numbers are complex derivatives of a large body of other, more basic, stats and they are usually detailed attempts to more accurately gauge the true value of players. In fantasy circles they are often used to predict future performance. I classify them separately from the peripheral stats because the formulas used to calculate the sabermetric stats often include numbers contrived by mathematicians that have little to do with events on the field.

Due to the complex and esoteric nature of many of these numbers, I am not the biggest fan of the sabermetric stats (see my critique of sabermetrics from Dec. 10, 2008). They are often only comprehensible by those who calculate them and they can be difficult to penetrate by anyone lacking a mathematics degree. That said, some of them are really cool and do provide some sharp insight into player development and performance.

Pitchers are notoriously difficult to project and pigeonhole, so sabermetricians have developed fewer statistics for them than for batters. Also, because these stats are the invention of really smart dudes with too much time on their hands, there are quite a few of them and they can change without a moment's notice. Here are a couple of the best examples that I sometimes refer to:

• DEFENSE INDEPENDENT PITCHING (DIPS) is also called Fielding Independent Pitching depending on the source. It attempts to measure a pitcher's effectiveness based on plays which are totally under his control (i.e., home runs allowed, strikeouts, walks, etc.). Since a pitcher is forced to rely upon the defenders in the field backing him up, poor defenders can negatively influence the numbers of a pitcher. This stat is an attempt to minimize or negate that influence.
  

• EXPECTED ERA (xERA) takes a pitcher's regular ERA and tries to remove all the external factors influencing that number to come up with a normalized ERA. Things like bullpen support and park factors are removed from the equation to make every pitcher in the game equal to each other. The resulting number tells us what a particular pitcher's ERA would be if everyone pitched under the exact same circumstances.

That is all for now. Come back to MVN Fantasy Outsider next week for a discussion of how we use stats effectively for batters in fantasy baseball. Thanks for reading!